Were we not in full electoral climate and ideological drift, it would be worthwhile to deepen the concept expressed yesterday by Vladimir Putin with respect to the telluric shift taking place in world balances, inevitably disposed towards an Asian axis. But you know, summoning the Russian president is equivalent to reserving a place in hell in this country. Which, however, soon risks coming to terms with a reality that has little desire to joke.
On the other hand, just take note of the government’s rationing plan. At first it was purely theoretical and precautionary, but not intended for implementation. Then began the foreign trips in search of gas and the expensive filling of storage. Finally, not only is the plan announced in its implementation since October, but it also becomes a reality in its details. And the fairy tale of the lesser degree of temperature and the lesser hour of heating is revealed as such and gives way to fifteen days of delay in switching on the systems, rationing of shower times and even regulation in the use of household appliances. Maybe it changes little for us, but we are a country in perennial demographic stalemate. And for an over-70-year-old it changes. And quite a lot.
In short, something is not right. And since it is Italy, already today there is only one common thought: who do you want to bother to check all the condominiums and apartments in the country? True. If only because the staff are physically lacking, even if we want to mobilize all the public administration.
On the other hand, someone – unlike Minister Cingolani – has decided to take the situation very seriously and worriedly. And I am not referring to the spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, but to Goldman Sachs. It has in fact parameterized the entire report on the European sector to the Italian energy dynamics, published in view of tomorrow’s EU summit. And there is little to laugh about, in fact. Starting with this graph.
It shows us how – at the current prices of 1-year futures contracts – already in the first quarter of 2023, the cost of electricity and gas for the average Italian family could reach 500 euros per month. PER MONTH. That is, if husband and wife work and both can count on an average salary of around 1,500 euros, it means that one sixth of the total income of the nucleus is eroded monthly by energy bills alone.
Now, will you tell me that Goldman Sachs is also a Kremlin agent provocateur? No, simply – unlike the government and Minister Cingolani – he knows how to do his job. Or, perhaps, he WANTS to do his job. And not instead put lipstick on the pigas they say in the jargon on Wall Street, when it evokes the desire to embellish a macro picture that is anything but optimistic.
And that’s not enough. Because Goldman, always using Italy as a parameter, wrote in black and white that the increase in energy costs for Europe in 2023 could reach 2 trillion euros compared to 2021: it is equivalent to 15% of the Eurozone’s GDP. And that’s not enough, because again at the current price levels of futures on energy contracts, the electricity and gas bill could weigh up to 20% of the average disposable income per family in Europe.
Again, this is Goldman Sachs. Do you want to tell me that the world champion bank of liberalism has suddenly become pro-Putinian? Or perhaps something has really broken in the equilibrium of the Old Continent and no one has the courage to admit it yet? Perhaps precisely because this watershed argument was put on the table by Vladimir Putin and approaching the theme automatically means becoming one of those mythological creatures defined the pro-Putinians from the enlightened minds of the Democratic Party and the Sheet?
Attention, therefore, to what will happen between today and Sunday evening. That is, ECB decision on rates, energy summit and legislative vote in Sweden. A triptych of events destined to act as a litmus test of the underestimations and lies of the Best. Not surprisingly, Europe bubbles like crazy the words of Maria Zakharova. But she doesn’t disprove them with figures or facts. Not surprisingly, Minister Cingolani swells his chest, responding to the Kremlin that Italy does not let its agenda be dictated is that the sacrifices will be reduced. But it does not put certainties on the plate. Because it can not. He is worth being totally disavowed. And since his name, strangely, has already been inserted with granite certainty in the ministerial organization chart of the next government, whoever composes it, better shut up. Or limit yourself to low-ranking propaganda.
The reality is another. And Lavrov’s spokesperson does not say it or the Kremlin. Goldman Sachs confirms. Or the vice-president of the Norwegian energy giant Equinor, according to which “European utilities are already meeting potential margin calls for 1.5 trillion euros in value “. Recipe? “A permanent liquidity scheme by governments, on pain of the risk of a total blockade of energy trading in Europe “. Find his statement on Bloomberg, just search the site. Facts, not propaganda.
And it seems decidedly symbolic that a government steeped in empty promises and reassurance without construct spends half its time mocking and condemning the Russian propensity for disinformation.
If you don’t want to trust me, I hope Goldman Sachs is still sufficiently Western, liberal, Atlanticist and pro-American to remove any doubt of credibility in his theses. Based on numbers. And not on the electoral campaign or on the need to save face in the face of a macroscopic miscalculation in wanting to openly challenge Russia.
The reality is all in that graph. And if you explain to me how it is possible to finance billion-dollar energy deficits, while the ECB raises rates to cool inflation, you are doing me a favor. Because if the prospect is to get into debt or go back to printing to pay for energy imports (in dollars), in the midst of that Dadaist monetary context, the epilogue appears to be only one. And the euro plunging below par with the dollar for the first time in 20 years is the spoiler. Creepy.
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