FTSEMib: we are back to neutral

FTSEMib: we are back to neutral

As our market position has become neutral, we wonder if the market itself has not become neutral as well. Technical analysis says no but who knows. Let’s see what the graphs add and what to watch out for

By Fabio Pioli, professional trader, creator of Miraclapp, the largest extra income platform

This morning we exited our last bearish position (A2A) and returned to neutral on the market: we no longer have any short (or long) positions.

Yes, it was an excellent profit: 11% on a single stock but this is not the reason for the exit from the low, nor does the fact of having come out of the low mean that the market will go up.

The real meaning, the most important, is that the title A2A no longer has now, objectively, more than 90% probability of going down and therefore we say no to the risk and close the short taking home the gain to reposition ourselves on another operation (long or short that it is) only when it will objectively have more than ‘80% or 90% chance of making another profit. And so on, endlessly. This is the concept behind Miraclapp, the largest extra income platform, of our conception.

I know some still don’t understand and respectively will buy stocks like A2A, IS IN THE, Understanding S. Paolo, Unicredit, Telecom etc .. in the hope that they will go up or shove the Italian index or other stocks in the hope that they will go down but I also know for sure that in their hearts they know that the difference is just this: hope.

We do not act in hope, but in mathematical certainty and therefore we will not hold titles for years in the hope that sooner or later they will rise, keeping skeletons in the closet to be left to the children, nor will we have positions in which we “believe” without actually knowing anything, but we get what everyone wants: trade after trade, income from the market.

So let’s now forget what we think of the market, which we will say immediately, in favor of what we are looking for as a signal from the market, which we will say later.

What we think of the market is that it will go down (and we still dwell on the difference between the fact that we think it will go down and instead we do not have – for now – short positions).

This is for two reasons:

  1. the first is that the trend is already negative (maximum decreasing and minimum decreasing) so what happens more easily is that it continues in the same direction rather than reverses (remember the tune “trend is your friend”?);
  2. the second is related to the shape of the graph: if we admit that we are under wave 3 of wave 3 then we will be destined to go below the previous minimum of 20030 (Figure 1).

Fig 1. FTSEMib Future – Weekly chart

Furthermore, I repeat, attention, what was said in the previous articles: the future movement will be explosive: the volatility that will be unleashed will not be imaginable in the least by those who are now used to current fluctuations.

But how, then, will you think: Pioli expects a bursting decline and closes his short positions? Is he crazy?

No, don’t worry. They are not at all. I would be crazy to do the opposite: the market told me that A2A has no known probabilities of continuing its descent (it does not mean that it will not collapse, it means exactly that the probabilities with which it will eventually collapse or eventually rise are no longer known) so it is right to get out of it, put the money back into the current account together with their “friends” that they have brought with them and do the same game again with the next earning opportunity. Endlessly.

Profit opportunities that, right now, could be manifested on a long or a short on ENIa long or a short up Italian posta long or a short up Buzzi Unicem or a long (and not a short) on A2A.

On the other hand, even if the graph in Figure 1 should truly represent the future, who tells us that instead, in the short term, given that the downward configuration remains valid until eventually the 24,900 future points on the FTSEMib are not exceeded. (Figure 2), are there no other excursions between the current values ​​and the level, in fact, 24,900?


Fig 2. FTSEMib Future – Daily chart.

We will see: In any case from now on we will no longer publish our earning opportunities at probability> 80% or> 90%.

The ownership of the analysis that we report here is of the author of the same, and the publisher – who hosts this comment – assumes no responsibility for its content and for the purposes for which the reader will use it. The author announces that this presentation presents information that could potentially implicitly or explicitly suggest an investment strategy regarding one or more financial instruments and opinions on the current or future value or price of such instruments and is intended as a marketing communication. As such it does not represent research prepared in accordance with legal requirements aimed at promoting the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition prohibiting trading by analysts and relevant persons prior to the dissemination of the research in investment matters.

#FTSEMib #neutral

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