Gas effect, record inflation: never so high since 1985. For spending 600 euros more

Gas effect, record inflation: never so high since 1985. For spending 600 euros more

The increasingly frequent daily alarms launched by companies, traders, farmers, trade associations on expensive energy, are war bulletins. And it is to all intents and purposes a conflict within the conflict that is happening on energy, with Russia interrupting the flow of the Nord Stream gas pipeline until 3 September, unless it becomes a definitive stop. In recent days, Moscow’s decision has caused dizzying increases in the price of gas which exceeded 300 euros per mwh and, although yesterday, it closed at 239 euros, the risk of a new boom is far from a ‘ hypothesis.

In this scenario, inflation continues to increase relentlessly, registering an annual increase of 8.4% with a further growth compared to 7.9% in July. To understand the gravity of the situation, just think that such an increase had not occurred for 36 years (+ 8.8% in December 1985). The main cause of inflation is determined by the increase in the prices of electricity and gas, which have a cascade impact on all economic sectors, also affecting basic necessities. The growth of energy goods does not accept to decrease and, according to the Federconsumatori estimate, in the next autumn and winter families will pay 49% more for heating oil, 62% more for gas under the enhanced protection regime. and 99% more for pellets.

Things are not going better for the shopping cart, with food, household and personal care which show an increase of 9.7% (+ 10.2% for food). Translated into figures, the Codacons calculates a higher expenditure for a family with two children of 3,352 euros a year and, according to the National Consumer Union, a family will pay an average of 598 euros more on an annual basis, a figure that rises to 815 euros for a couple with two children and 974 euros for those with three children.

Just to eat and drink. Such significant increases in primary goods will cause a drop in consumption that will have an effect on growth, and it is no coincidence that Confesercenti has estimated that “without a trend reversal, the increase in prices and utilities will lead to lower spending over the next two years. 34 billion, over 1,300 euros less per family ».

The boom in supermarket costs stems from the critical situation facing the supply chain. Large-scale distribution companies have denounced an expensive energy now unsustainable due to “increases in the cost of bills never recorded before: the average is between + 200% and + 300%”. Ancc-Coop, Ancd-Conad, Confcommercio and Federdistribuzione therefore asked for urgent interventions: “Today the incidence of the cost of energy on the income statement of companies in the sector is undergoing a significant increase”. Same situation for the industrial sector, which in July recorded a 5% increase in production prices on a monthly basis and 36% on an annual basis (according to estimates, 120 thousand companies and 370 thousand jobs are at risk in Italy) .

In the meantime, the race against time continues to fill gas storage in view of the winter, which have reached 81.93%. But, if action is not taken at the European level as soon as possible by setting a ceiling on the price of gas, the situation risks deteriorating further. The appointment is for 9 September, when the extraordinary council of European energy ministers will meet. While doubts remain about the Dutch gas price ceiling, Hungary has signed a new contract with Gazprom to increase gas supplies to 5.8 million cubic meters per day.

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